Before The Open
| Index | Last Close | Pred Open | Pred Close | Up % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 46558.47 | 46123.85 | 45481.26 | 43.8 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 22105.36 | 21852.02 | 21666.31 | 44.2 |
| S&P 500 | 6632.19 | 6570.67 | 6506.50 | 44.6 |
Forecasts for 2026-03-16
The morning job stores model output for S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and Dow Jones before markets open. Close-day actuals update the error spread after the close.
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Recent Actuals And Forecast Error
| Date | Index | Actual Close | Forecast Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| No market-close actuals have been ingested yet. | |||
Model Detail Snapshot
Score
The combined model signal. Higher positive values lean more bullish, and more negative values lean more bearish.
Momentum 3d / 5d / 20d
Recent price trend over 3, 5, and 20 trading days. Positive means recent gains; negative means recent weakness.
Intra 5d
The average intraday move over the last 5 sessions, measuring whether closes have tended to finish above or below the opens.
Vol 20d
Annualized realized volatility over the last 20 trading days. Higher volatility usually makes the model more cautious.
MA20 Dist / MA50 Dist
Distance from the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Far above average can hint at mean reversion risk; far below can hint at rebound potential.
Gap
The overnight move implied by the latest open versus the prior close. It helps anchor the expected opening level.
Range
The latest daily high-low range as a percent of price. It helps size the expected forecast bands for the next session.
VIX / Yield / Oil / DXY 5d
Five-day macro signals. Rising VIX often pressures risk assets, while yields, crude, and the dollar can shift market tone depending on regime.
Futures 1d / 5d
Recent moves in the matching index futures contract. These help the model incorporate overnight and short-term forward-looking market tone.
| Index | Score | Mom 3d | Mom 5d | Mom 20d | Intra 5d | Vol 20d | MA20 Dist | MA50 Dist | Gap | Range | VIX 5d | Yield 5d | Oil 5d | DXY 5d | Fut 1d | Fut 5d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | -0.0312 | n/a | -0.0199 | -0.0585 | n/a | 0.1218 | -0.0414 | n/a | 0.0002 | n/a | -0.0780 | 0.0368 | 0.0859 | 0.0140 | n/a | n/a |
| NASDAQ Composite | -0.0291 | n/a | -0.0126 | -0.0218 | n/a | 0.1583 | -0.0248 | n/a | 0.0051 | n/a | -0.0780 | 0.0368 | 0.0859 | 0.0140 | n/a | n/a |
| S&P 500 | -0.0271 | n/a | -0.0160 | -0.0294 | n/a | 0.1167 | -0.0289 | n/a | 0.0001 | n/a | -0.0780 | 0.0368 | 0.0859 | 0.0140 | n/a | n/a |
Forecast Ranges And Scenarios
Open Low / High
A practical band around the model's expected opening print, based on recent gap and range behavior.
Close Low / High
The model's expected closing range if the next session behaves broadly in line with recent realized volatility.
Bull Case / Bear Case
Simple upside and downside scenario markers around the base close forecast. They are scenarios, not guaranteed limits.
| Index | Open Low | Open High | Close Low | Close High | Bull Case | Bear Case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 45951.20 | 46296.49 | 45140.78 | 45821.73 | 45753.64 | 45208.88 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 21757.80 | 21946.24 | 21479.47 | 21853.16 | 21815.79 | 21516.84 |
| S&P 500 | 6548.21 | 6593.13 | 6462.02 | 6550.98 | 6542.08 | 6470.92 |